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Balance Your Checkbook and Golf Swing
We all search for it. Balance in our daily lives. Balance while riding a bike. Politicians are always debating a balanced budget in Washington, and most of us could use a little balance in our checkbooks. Balance is a term used in golf quite often...
Clemens Strikes Out 20, Again; Rocket Repeats Magic 10 Years After
DETROIT--In 1986, Roger Clemens was a young fireballer amidst his first Cy Young season when he struck out 20 Seattle Mariners and established a Major League Baseball record. That same year, Clemens won All-Star Game MVP honors as well as the...
Dan - A Great Coach
Dan - A Great Coach My wife, my daughter and I had been eagerly anticipating my daughter’s first lesson with Dan, her new batting coach. Of course, we heard how good he was. Our next door neighbor spoke glowingly of Dan’s expertise as a batting...
Mr Lear's Dream. Hopefully a Dream To Come True.
Mr Lear's Dream. Hopefully a Dream To Come True.
I have known L E Lear for over 40 years. At my high school reunion on October 8, 2005 I noticed he was missing from the event. He was working on his dream. I will get to that in a little while. I...
Slugger Or Pitcher
Why I'd Rather Be A Slugger During the last NLCS, I asked Brandon Backe of the Astros what the hardest thing was for him in making the conversion from outfielder to pitcher in the minors. He said it was "not playing every day." That is why I...
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"The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!"
In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.
Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.
If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.
When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).
As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.
Heads is now an even
shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.
The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.
The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 on tails.
At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 (+150 US), for an event where the 'true odds’ of success are 1/1.
As long as he bets at this price (6/4) or any 'value' price, the professional will win in the long run.
Naturally, it is not as easy to assess the 'true odds' in sports events because there are so many variables, however, with experience it can be done, especially if one specializes in particular sports events.
About the Author
The author has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years and helps advise a number of sportsbooks:
Gameday Sportsbook
SportingBet
VIP Sports Group
amongst others - all of which are leaders in the sports betting and gambling industry.
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