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A Game In Progress
A Game In Progress
The game is getting down to the nitty gritty and the opposing team is ready to pull ahead if we don't get our stuff together. Oh well I know I had him, blind ump. The next batter is their number four batter and he is ready to...
Dieting where you do not need to starve yourself
I am somebody who has had an ongoing battle with my weight for most of my life. I have to be very careful what I eat as I seem to gain weight very easily. I have tried many diets, however I wanted to find a way of losing weight without having to...
Making All City - This Was a Great Moment In My Life.
Toward the end of my junior year at Weequahic High School in Newark New Jersey, I started hearing from my friends that I was going to make All City. How did they know I asked myself? In my usual mood of high esteem I was thinking that there was...
Successful Baseball Hitters Always Have a Plan!
Successful Hitters Always Have a Plan! Here are some thoughts on the above topic from a buddy of mine. The guy’s name is Steve Springer. “If baseball is 90% mental, why do we work on it less than 10% of the time?” "You cannot control getting a...
Your golf swing is good enough
If you watch the Golf Channel or read any of the magazines and books on golf, it will be very hard for you to miss the basic theme that "There is a perfect swing and you will do the most for your game by trying to get it". Even when you watch a...
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"The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!"
In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.
Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.
If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.
When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).
As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.
Heads is now an even
shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.
The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.
The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 on tails.
At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 (+150 US), for an event where the 'true odds’ of success are 1/1.
As long as he bets at this price (6/4) or any 'value' price, the professional will win in the long run.
Naturally, it is not as easy to assess the 'true odds' in sports events because there are so many variables, however, with experience it can be done, especially if one specializes in particular sports events.
About the Author
The author has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years and helps advise a number of sportsbooks:
Gameday Sportsbook
SportingBet
VIP Sports Group
amongst others - all of which are leaders in the sports betting and gambling industry.
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