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Carlos Zambrano: Over-Shadowed by Greatness
With Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Greg Maddux and Matt Clement on his staff, Carlos Zambrano has been over-shadowed by other household name pitchers. After todays (May 13th) start, in which Zambrano pitched 8 innings giving up 0 ER and striking...
Contact Lenses A Better Vision Option
There are over 34 million contact wearers in America. The idea of contact lenses has been around for hundreds of years. It is said that the first person to conceptualize the idea of contact lenses was Leonardo da Vinci in the early 1500's. It wasn't...
Golf and Zen -- Chapter Three
Golfing Zen -- Chapter Three
About Golfing Zen: This is the third in a continuing series of
short essays dealing with the application of Eastern spiritual
philosophy to your golf game.
The surface intent is that, as you apply the ideas,...
More Baseball Quotes
I love what prominent baseball people have to say about the great ballplayers. They seem to eloquently capture what we are thinking. "It was his solemn duty to catch a ball that wasn't in the stands." - Monte Irvin (Newark Eagles OF, May 6,...
My God...It's Full of Stars!
There are not too many opportunities while running a business where there is a defined period of work stoppage, thus giving you the time needed to go over the details of your product or service. Right now, the NHL's little details are eagerly...
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"The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!"
In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.
Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.
If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.
When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).
As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.
Heads is now an even
shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.
The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.
The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 on tails.
At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 (+150 US), for an event where the 'true odds’ of success are 1/1.
As long as he bets at this price (6/4) or any 'value' price, the professional will win in the long run.
Naturally, it is not as easy to assess the 'true odds' in sports events because there are so many variables, however, with experience it can be done, especially if one specializes in particular sports events.
About the Author
The author has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years and helps advise a number of sportsbooks:
Gameday Sportsbook
SportingBet
VIP Sports Group
amongst others - all of which are leaders in the sports betting and gambling industry.
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