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A Game In Progress
A Game In Progress
The game is getting down to the nitty gritty and the opposing team is ready to pull ahead if we don't get our stuff together. Oh well I know I had him, blind ump. The next batter is their number four batter and he is ready to...
April's Sports View
SPORTS VIEW By Leigh Douglas As the ‘madness’ winds down, I find myself having to eat crow. Illinois is for real (I still stand by Carolina winning it all) but the fighting Illini are a much better team than I had given them credit. As the NFL...
Dark Ages: History of the Negro Leagues in America
The sport of baseball is often referred to as the "national pastime." For years it has played an important role in many people's lives, providing heroes and idols for millions of children and providing numerous memories of "spring eternal" for many...
Florida a Sporting Powerhouse
Florida is one of the most Southern of all the United States. It is known as the Sunshine State for it's warm weather and pacific climate. "Florida" is a Spanish adjective which means "flowery". Florida was discovered by a Spanish explorer during...
Total Bases
Total Bases
This statistic fascinates me. For me it shows the difference
between a slugger and a home run hitter. There have been players
that have hit home runs that I do not consider good hitters.
But when they are slugging, they get all...
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"The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!"
In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.
Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.
If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.
When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).
As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.
Heads is now an even
shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.
The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.
The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 on tails.
At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 (+150 US), for an event where the 'true odds’ of success are 1/1.
As long as he bets at this price (6/4) or any 'value' price, the professional will win in the long run.
Naturally, it is not as easy to assess the 'true odds' in sports events because there are so many variables, however, with experience it can be done, especially if one specializes in particular sports events.
About the Author
The author has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years and helps advise a number of sportsbooks:
Gameday Sportsbook
SportingBet
VIP Sports Group
amongst others - all of which are leaders in the sports betting and gambling industry.
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