|
|
|
Are You A Side-Line Coach
With spring in the air, flower’s and baseball are in full bloom. As the father of a nine-year old son, each day is spent perfecting the art of baseball. This includes making that perfect pitch to first base, snagging those ground balls and...
Dan - A Great Coach
Dan - A Great Coach My wife, my daughter and I had been eagerly anticipating my daughter’s first lesson with Dan, her new batting coach. Of course, we heard how good he was. Our next door neighbor spoke glowingly of Dan’s expertise as a batting...
Gamers in the Game
Sometimes at night, while I sleep, I dream that I am the point guard on Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls. Other nights, I bat cleanup for the Chicago White Sox. If that isn’t busy enough, I still often find time to quarterback Jimmy Johnson’s...
My Daughter Manteee
My daughter Manteee (Samantha) has shown me a path that I like traveling. She has been and will continue to be an inspiration in my life. Her fearless nature and competitive qualities have swelled my heart. I am so lucky to have her as my...
The Origins of Baseball.
No one knows for sure where baseball exacted originated. However, most baseball buffs will concur that the sport is based on the English game of rounders. In the United States, baseball became popular in the early 1800's, originally known as...
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
"The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!"
In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.
Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.
If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.
When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).
As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.
Heads is now an even
shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.
The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.
The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 on tails.
At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 (+150 US), for an event where the 'true odds’ of success are 1/1.
As long as he bets at this price (6/4) or any 'value' price, the professional will win in the long run.
Naturally, it is not as easy to assess the 'true odds' in sports events because there are so many variables, however, with experience it can be done, especially if one specializes in particular sports events.
About the Author
The author has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years and helps advise a number of sportsbooks:
Gameday Sportsbook
SportingBet
VIP Sports Group
amongst others - all of which are leaders in the sports betting and gambling industry.
|
|
|
|
|
|
